The TPC Scottsdale is a links-style course in the middle of the desert and is just over 7,200 yards with more than 70 bunkers. That, along with six holes on the back side that play next to water, require placement of shots.
Since the tournament was first played at TPC of Scottsdale in 1987, the winners include those that play well on U.S. Open-type courses. A perfect example of this was 2007 champion Aaron Baddeley, who was near perfect for 54 holes at the U.S. Open and finished in the Top-10.
Several changes were made to the course in 2004.
More than 200 yards were added with new tees at the sixth, ninth, 14th and the 15th holes and these changes were put into effect because it seemed the course was getting too easy. In 2003 the average score was 69.133. After all of those changes, scoring went up a stroke and a quarter in 2004 and another full stroke in 2005 when it was 71.574, the most difficult it had played since 1999 when the average was 73.24.
With some milder conditions and the players getting used to the changes, scoring averages went back down to 70.344 in 2006, 69.846 in 2007, 70.306 in 2008, 70.877 in 2009 and 69.930 last year. So with perfect weather scoring could be low again. Here are some keys to playing well at the Waste Management Phoenix Open Open:
Key stat for the winner:
Those with a hot putter seem to dominate. Other than Vijay Singh's victory in 2003, Kenny Perry in 2009 and Hunter Mahan last year, every winner since 1997 has been in the Top-10 in putting, with eight of the winners being in the top five. Phil Mickelson was second in putts in 2005, averaging 26.00 per round while J.B. Holmes led the event in 2006, averaging 27.00 putts per round. In 2007 Aaron Baddeley led with just 104 putts and was second in putts per greens hit.
In 2008 Holmes was T20th in greens hit and T10th in putting. But there could be a change, in 2009 Kenny Perry was T3rd in greens hit and T53rd in putting while Last year Hunter Mahan was 1st in greens hit and T71st in putting. No rhyme or reason for the change, still look for a good putter this week.
Another important fact is that birdies have to be made on par 4s. This is one of those events in which scoring is lower on the par 4s than the par 5s, In 2004, Jonathan Kaye was the the only champion in the last nine years that played better on the par 5s than the par 4s. In 2005 Mickelson was 9-under on the par 4s and 5-under on the par 5s while in 2006 Holmes was 11-under on the par 4s and 9-under on the par 5s.
In 2007 Baddeley was 8-under on the par 4s and 9-under on the par 5s, in 2008 Holmes was 7 under on the par 4s and 8 under on the par 5s while in 2009 Kenny Perry was 7 under on the par 4s and 8 under on the par 5s. Last year Mahan was 6 under on the par 4s and 7 under on the par 5s.
One unimportant stat:
Even though the course is in the desert and it would seem that the long hitters would dominate, that isn't the case. Since 1997 only two of the last 12 champions have been in the Top-10 of the driving distance stat and three of the winners were not in the Top-25.
In 2005 Phil Mickelson averaged 307.8 per drive and was 12th in the field while in 2006 J.B. Holmes drove it 308.0 yards and was 13th. In 2007 Baddeley followed the trend as he was 15th in driving distance at 296.6 So you don't have to hit it long to win in Phoenix while in 2008 Holmes was 13th averaging 302.5 yards and Kenny Perry was 9th in 2009 with a 311.1 avearge while last year Hunter Mahan was T33rd with a 294.3 average. The key here is hitting it long doesn't really help in winning.
Five of the last 11 champions have had a Top-10 finish within three weeks before they won the championship, so look for someone that is playing well to win. In 2009 Kenny Perry finished T6th at Kapalua just three weeks before the Phoenix Open, but Hunter Mahan was not playing well leading up to last year's event
Players can't be afraid of a lot of people watching, considering as many as 100,000 will be in attendance over the weekend.
Players must hit lots of greens and make lots of birdies. In the last 14 years the winners have averaged hitting 72% of the greens and averaged 23 birdies for the week.
